National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA)

Emerging and resurging vector-borne diseases (VBDs) cause significant morbidity and mortality, especially in the developing world. The burden of VBDs in India has become very challenging problem and is alarmingly increasing. The complex epidemiology of VBDs creates significant challenges in the design and delivery of prevention and control strategies especially in the light of rapid social and environmental changes. The seasonality, distribution and prevalence of VBDs are influenced significantly by climatic factors. Since both the infectious agent and the associated vectors are devoid of thermostatic mechanisms, their body temperature will be determined directly by the local environment. Hence there is a limited range of climatic conditions (the climate envelope) within which each vector species can survive and reproduce. In addition to this, the incubation time of an infective agent within its vector organism is typically very sensitive to changes in temperature and there is a growing concern among the research community about the extent to which the pattern of VBDs changes under the conditions of global climate change. Climate change can results in modified weather patterns and increase in extreme events that can results in disease outbreaks by altering biological variables such as vector population size and density, vector survival rates, pathogen reproduction rates as well as the population of disease susceptible animals. The impact of weather and climate on VBDs transmission has attracted considerable attention in recent years, yet uncertainties about future disease trends under climate changing scenario remain. Mapping of vector population as well as predictive risk mapping provides powerful tools for addressing such questions and understanding the implications for interventions and eradication strategies. Spatial models for predicting disease risks based on environmental factors such as climate and landscape have been developed for a number of VBDs in other parts of the world. The resulting risk maps have proven value for highlighting the areas for targeting public health programmes. Unfortunately the influence of environmental and climatic factors on the maintenance and emergence of vector borne diseases remain poorly understood in the country. Because of agro-climatic diversity the occurrence of such diseases happens in different time periods in different zones in India. Region specific prediction model of these different diseases will help to adopt specific control measures of the diseases zone wise in a better way. Besides for remote areas such prediction model will be very useful where the authority will get an early warning for providing of medicines and information to the affected area..

Objectives:
Objective I: To measure the potential influence of climate variability on temporal and spatial change in vector distribution & transmission patterns of vector –borne livestock diseases in India
Objective-II: Development of vector map and predictive risk map for control of vector-borne livestock diseases through climate-vector-pathogen relationship models
Objective-III: Development of climate-sensitive Decision support system to aid in decisions concerning the choice of appropriate livestock disease control strategies.

NICRA link

For further details contact - PI: Dr. K.P.Suresh, Principal Scientist

Manual on Climate data generation,Mapping and Climate Disease Relation Modelling using R