Quantitative
Risk Assessment
Portal
An interactive, web-based tool for scenario tree–based quantitative risk Assessment of cross-border disease introduction into India using Monte Carlo simulation.
What is Risk?
The likelihood of occurrence and the magnitude of consequences of a specified hazard being realized.
Probability
What are the chances an unfavorable event will happen? This component evaluates the likelihood of the hazard materializing along the pathway from source to destination.
Consequences
What will be the outcome if it happens? This considers both the biological impact (disease spread, mortality) and economic consequences of the hazard being introduced.
Risk Assessment Components
Risk Assessment is a process undertaken to deal with matters posing a potential danger, managed according to standard procedures.
Hazard Identification
Identifying the disease agents that pose a risk through cross-border pathways.
Risk Assessment
Systematic evaluation of the magnitude of the risk considering likelihood and impact.
Risk Management
Identifying, selecting and implementing measures to reduce risk to an acceptable level.
Risk Communication
Interactive exchange of information on risk between authorities and stakeholders.
Risk Assessment Steps
Release / Entry Assessment
Description of biological pathways through which the hazard could be introduced, and the likelihood of each pathway.
Exposure Assessment
Description of biological pathways through which animals would be exposed to the hazard, and the likelihood of each pathway.
Consequence Assessment
Description of relationships between exposures to hazards and consequences (biological and economic).
Risk Estimation
Integration of results from the previous three steps to produce overall measures of risk.
Qualitative vs Quantitative
Both methods are valid in risk Assessment
| Qualitative | Quantitative |
|---|---|
| Risk described in words | Risk estimated numerically |
| High, medium, low, negligible | Numerical probabilities |
| Often the first step | More detailed, time-consuming |
| Used when data not available | Requires reliable data |
Scenario Tree–based QRA
Sequential events modeled as probabilistic nodes in a decision pathway.
Disease at Source
Probability of disease occurrence in the source country from outbreak surveillance data.
Infection Prevalence
Probability of infection prevalence in the host population, modeled using Beta distributions.
Detection at Source
Probability of false-negative detection at the source, based on diagnostic test sensitivity.
Survival / Transit
Probability of the pathogen or infected host surviving during transport to the destination.
Detection at Destination
Probability of failure of detection at the destination via screening and diagnostic methods.
Exposure / Contact
Probability of exposure to susceptible population at the destination, leading to disease introduction.
How It Works
- → Scenario tree models represent sequential events leading to disease introduction
- → Each event is assigned a probability distribution representing uncertainty
- → Overall risk estimated through Monte Carlo simulation (10,000+ iterations)
- → If any node is "No", the pathway terminates as "No Risk"
Output Metrics
- → Mean probability with 95% confidence interval
- → Risk expressed as "1 in N" for decision-makers
- → Uncertainty distribution histogram (log-scale supported)
- → Spearman rank sensitivity Assessment of input parameters
Disease Risk Modules
Choose a disease module from the dashboard to run interactive risk Assessment simulations.
SAT-1 FMD Risk Assessment
Foot-and-Mouth Disease • Kuwait → India
Quantitative risk assessment for SAT-1 FMD serotype introduction through live animal trade from Kuwait to India. Includes 6-node scenario tree with Beta and Uniform distributions.
Open FMD Module →Cholera Risk Assessment
Bangladesh / China → India
Quantitative risk assessment for cholera introduction into India from Bangladesh and China through human movement. Includes WASH exposure factors and case fatality modeling.
Open Cholera Module →