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Japanese Encephalitis (JE)
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Decoding Infection and Transmission Dynamics (JE)

Multi-host JE transmission involving humans, mosquitoes, pigs, and wading birds.

Model Architecture

Differential Equations

$$ \frac{dS_w}{dt} = b_w - \frac{r_w N_w}{K_w} - B\beta_{mw} b(T)\frac{I_m}{N_w} S_w - \varepsilon_w S_w - \mu_w S_w $$ $$ \frac{dI_w}{dt} = B\beta_{mw} b(T)\frac{I_m}{N_w} S_w - \mu_w I_w $$ $$ \frac{dB_w}{dt} = \varepsilon_w S_w - \mu_w B_w $$ $$ \frac{dN_w}{dt} = b_w - \left(\frac{r_w}{K_w} + \mu_w\right) N_w $$ --- $$ \frac{dS_p}{dt} = b_p - C\beta_{mp} b(T)\frac{I_m}{N_p} S_p - \varepsilon_p S_p - \mu_p S_p + \alpha_2 I_p $$ $$ \frac{dI_p}{dt} = C\beta_{mp} b(T)\frac{I_m}{N_p} S_p - \alpha_2 I_p - \mu_p I_p $$ $$ \frac{dB_p}{dt} = \varepsilon_p S_p - \mu_p B_p $$ --- $$ \frac{dS_m}{dt} = b_m - \frac{r_m N_m}{K_m} - \left( C\beta_{pm} b(T)\frac{I_p}{N_p} + B\beta_{wm} b(T)\frac{I_w}{N_w} \right) S_m - \mu_m S_m $$ $$ \frac{dI_m}{dt} = \left( C\beta_{pm} b(T)\frac{I_p}{N_p} + B\beta_{wm} b(T)\frac{I_w}{N_w} \right) S_m - \mu_m I_m $$ $$ \frac{dN_m}{dt} = b_m - \left(\frac{r_m}{K_m} + \mu_m\right) N_m $$ --- $$ \frac{dS_h}{dt} = (1-\alpha_1)b_h - \beta_{mh} b(T)\frac{I_m}{N_h} S_h + \rho_1 V_{1h} + \rho_2 V_{2h} - \mu_h S_h $$ $$ \frac{dI_{Ah}}{dt} = \beta_{mh} b(T)\frac{I_m}{N_h} S_h - \phi I_{Ah} - \mu_h I_{Ah} $$ $$ \frac{dI_h}{dt} = \phi I_{Ah} - (\tau_1 \eta_h + \tau_2 \delta) I_h - \sigma I_h - \mu_h I_h $$ $$ \frac{dR_h}{dt} = (\tau_1 \eta_h + \tau_2 \delta) I_h - \mu_h R_h $$ $$ \frac{dV_{1h}}{dt} = u_1 \alpha_1 b_h N_h - \rho_1 V_{1h} - \mu_h V_{1h} $$ $$ \frac{dV_{2h}}{dt} = (1-u_1)\alpha_1 b_h N_h - \rho_2 V_{2h} - \mu_h V_{2h} $$

Model Parameters

ParameterDescription
b_h,b_m,b_p,b_wRecruitment rates
μ_h,μ_m,μ_p,μ_wNatural death rates
S_h,S_m,S_p,S_wSusceptible populations
I_h,I_Ah,I_mInfected populations
V1_h,V2_hVaccinated humans
B_p,B_wBiosecurity / barrier groups
T₀,b₀Temperature & biting rate
K_m,K_wCarrying capacities