Decoding Infection and Transmission Dynamics (JE)
Multi-host JE transmission involving humans, mosquitoes, pigs, and wading birds.
Model Architecture
Differential Equations
$$
\frac{dS_w}{dt}
= b_w - \frac{r_w N_w}{K_w}
- B\beta_{mw} b(T)\frac{I_m}{N_w} S_w
- \varepsilon_w S_w
- \mu_w S_w
$$
$$
\frac{dI_w}{dt}
= B\beta_{mw} b(T)\frac{I_m}{N_w} S_w
- \mu_w I_w
$$
$$
\frac{dB_w}{dt}
= \varepsilon_w S_w - \mu_w B_w
$$
$$
\frac{dN_w}{dt}
= b_w - \left(\frac{r_w}{K_w} + \mu_w\right) N_w
$$
---
$$
\frac{dS_p}{dt}
= b_p
- C\beta_{mp} b(T)\frac{I_m}{N_p} S_p
- \varepsilon_p S_p
- \mu_p S_p
+ \alpha_2 I_p
$$
$$
\frac{dI_p}{dt}
= C\beta_{mp} b(T)\frac{I_m}{N_p} S_p
- \alpha_2 I_p
- \mu_p I_p
$$
$$
\frac{dB_p}{dt}
= \varepsilon_p S_p - \mu_p B_p
$$
---
$$
\frac{dS_m}{dt}
= b_m - \frac{r_m N_m}{K_m}
- \left(
C\beta_{pm} b(T)\frac{I_p}{N_p}
+ B\beta_{wm} b(T)\frac{I_w}{N_w}
\right) S_m
- \mu_m S_m
$$
$$
\frac{dI_m}{dt}
=
\left(
C\beta_{pm} b(T)\frac{I_p}{N_p}
+ B\beta_{wm} b(T)\frac{I_w}{N_w}
\right) S_m
- \mu_m I_m
$$
$$
\frac{dN_m}{dt}
= b_m - \left(\frac{r_m}{K_m} + \mu_m\right) N_m
$$
---
$$
\frac{dS_h}{dt}
= (1-\alpha_1)b_h
- \beta_{mh} b(T)\frac{I_m}{N_h} S_h
+ \rho_1 V_{1h}
+ \rho_2 V_{2h}
- \mu_h S_h
$$
$$
\frac{dI_{Ah}}{dt}
= \beta_{mh} b(T)\frac{I_m}{N_h} S_h
- \phi I_{Ah}
- \mu_h I_{Ah}
$$
$$
\frac{dI_h}{dt}
= \phi I_{Ah}
- (\tau_1 \eta_h + \tau_2 \delta) I_h
- \sigma I_h
- \mu_h I_h
$$
$$
\frac{dR_h}{dt}
= (\tau_1 \eta_h + \tau_2 \delta) I_h
- \mu_h R_h
$$
$$
\frac{dV_{1h}}{dt}
= u_1 \alpha_1 b_h N_h
- \rho_1 V_{1h}
- \mu_h V_{1h}
$$
$$
\frac{dV_{2h}}{dt}
= (1-u_1)\alpha_1 b_h N_h
- \rho_2 V_{2h}
- \mu_h V_{2h}
$$
Model Parameters
| Parameter | Description |
|---|---|
| b_h,b_m,b_p,b_w | Recruitment rates |
| μ_h,μ_m,μ_p,μ_w | Natural death rates |
| S_h,S_m,S_p,S_w | Susceptible populations |
| I_h,I_Ah,I_m | Infected populations |
| V1_h,V2_h | Vaccinated humans |
| B_p,B_w | Biosecurity / barrier groups |
| T₀,b₀ | Temperature & biting rate |
| K_m,K_w | Carrying capacities |