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Classical Swine Fever (CSF)
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Classical Swine Fever Decoding infection and Transmission Dynamics

Pig–pig, pig–wild boar interaction with vaccination, biosecurity, mechanical transmission, and culling.

Model Architecture

Differential Equations

Pigs

$$ \begin{aligned} \frac{dS_p}{dt} &= b_p + \varepsilon_1 V_p - \Big[ \frac{\beta_P I_p}{N_p} + \frac{\beta_{WP} I_w}{N_w} + \frac{\beta_1 (S_1+F) I_p}{N_p} \Big](1-\mu_1)S_p f(\cdot) - \phi_1 S_p - \mu_p S_p \\ \frac{dE_p}{dt} &= \Big[ \frac{\beta_P I_p}{N_p} + \frac{\beta_{WP} I_w}{N_w} + \frac{\beta_1 (S_1+F) I_p}{N_p} \Big](1-\mu_1)S_p f(\cdot) - (\sigma_1+\mu_p)E_p \\ \frac{dI_p}{dt} &= \sigma_1 E_p - (\gamma_1 + C + d_1)I_p \\ \frac{dR_p}{dt} &= \gamma_1 I_p - \mu_p R_p + \theta_1 V_p \\ \frac{dV_p}{dt} &= \phi_1 S_p - (\varepsilon_1+\theta_1+\mu_p)V_p \end{aligned} $$

Wild Boar

$$ \begin{aligned} \frac{dS_w}{dt} &= b_w - \frac{\beta_{PW} I_p}{N_p}(1-\pi)S_w f(\cdot) - \mu_w S_w - \pi S_w \\ \frac{dI_w}{dt} &= \frac{\beta_{PW} I_p}{N_p}(1-\pi)S_w f(\cdot) - (\gamma_2 + d_2 + \mu_w)I_w \\ \frac{dR_w}{dt} &= \gamma_2 I_w + \pi S_w - \mu_w R_w \end{aligned} $$

Equation Parameterization

SL No Parameter Description
1 b_p Birth rate of pigs
2 b_w Birth rate of wild boar
3 beta_P Pig → pig transmission rate
4 beta_W Wild boar → wild boar transmission rate
5 beta_{WP} Wild boar → pig transmission (swill, vehicles, carcasses)
6 beta_{PW} Pig → wild boar transmission
7 beta_1 Mechanical transmission (humans, vehicles, tools, clothes, shoes, swill feeding)
8 S_1 Swill feeding rate
9 F Fomite contamination index
10 mu_1 Biosecurity effectiveness (0–1)
11 mu_P Natural mortality rate of pigs
12 mu_w Natural mortality rate of wild boar
13 d_1 Disease-induced death rate of pigs
14 d_2 Disease-induced death rate of wild boar
15 varepsilon_1 Immunity loss rate in vaccinated pigs
16 phi_1 Vaccination rate of susceptible pigs
17 sigma_1 Rate exposed pigs become infected
18 theta_1 Recovery after vaccination
19 gamma_1 Recovery rate of pigs
20 gamma_2 Recovery rate of wild boar
21 C Culling rate
22 f(T) Temperature effect
23 f(pH) pH effect
24 f(RH) Relative humidity effect
25 f(R) Rainfall effect
26 pi Rate of bait vaccination for wild boar