R₀ (NGM)
—
Herd Immunity Threshold
—
Day 0 Results
S_P
0
E_P
0
I_P
0
R_P
0
V_P
0
S_W
0
I_W
0
R_W
0
Equilibrium Curve (I_total over time) — compare by I_P
Add I_P values → curves + peak markers + equilibrium (mean last 7 days). Each curve also marks the Outbreak Point at the main simulation's peak day.
I_P
Markers:
▲ red peak/outbreak point,
◆ green endemic start (plateau),
blue/gray epidemic start/end (I_total > 1).
Each I_P value gets a unique color.
Derived Indicators
Peak Infected
—
Peak Day
—
Outbreak Days (I_total > 1)
—
Endemic Equilibrium Points
Susceptible Pig (S*_P)
—
Exposed Pig (E*_P)
—
Infected Pig (I*_P)
—
Recoverd Pig (R*_P)
—
Vaccinated Pig (V*_P)
—
📊 Year-wise Hindcast Validation (CSF)
Validation Method (CSF SEIR — RK4 Numerical Integration, Year-Specific β Back-Calculation):
For each historical year and district: (1) Pig population from census (year-specific). (2) β_P is back-calculated from observed incidence: β_P = (obs/N)×(σ₁+μ_P)×(γ₁+C_P+D₁)×N / (S_P×σ₁×f(C)×(1−μ₁)), where S_P = N − obs. (3) ODE is seeded with I_P = observed attacks (not a fixed constant) — each district-year gets its own trajectory. (4) ODE solved 365 days using RK4 (Runge-Kutta 4th Order, h=1 day) — 4th-order accuracy, stable for stiff CSF dynamics. (5) Predicted = Avg Monthly I_P over active months. (6) Classification: Reported = observed > 0. Predicted = peak I_P > max(5, 0.01% of Np). Zero-attack years use live dashboard β_P to test if a spark self-sustains. Final YES: (Reported & Predicted) OR (Not Reported & Not Predicted).
For each historical year and district: (1) Pig population from census (year-specific). (2) β_P is back-calculated from observed incidence: β_P = (obs/N)×(σ₁+μ_P)×(γ₁+C_P+D₁)×N / (S_P×σ₁×f(C)×(1−μ₁)), where S_P = N − obs. (3) ODE is seeded with I_P = observed attacks (not a fixed constant) — each district-year gets its own trajectory. (4) ODE solved 365 days using RK4 (Runge-Kutta 4th Order, h=1 day) — 4th-order accuracy, stable for stiff CSF dynamics. (5) Predicted = Avg Monthly I_P over active months. (6) Classification: Reported = observed > 0. Predicted = peak I_P > max(5, 0.01% of Np). Zero-attack years use live dashboard β_P to test if a spark self-sustains. Final YES: (Reported & Predicted) OR (Not Reported & Not Predicted).
📂 Historical Data — District or State
Select a district to validate. Pig population from 2021 Census; CSF attack data 2021–2025. Monthly breakdown available.
Select a state to validate. Pig population from the State Level N_P (constant across years — no year‑wise state census). Only states with reported attacks are listed; the rest have no data.
Excel (.xlsx): Columns: Year, Month, District name, No of Attacks
CSV: Columns: Year, Observed_Attacks, Pig_Population. Optional: District.
Run validation to see hindcast validation against historical outbreaks.
📊 Scenario Comparison — Control Measures Summary
📌 Current Scenario Results
Change φ₁ (Vaccine Rate), μ₁ (Biosecurity), or C_P (Culling) in the left Parameters panel to see live results here.
| SCENARIO | RATE | PEAK R₀ | PEAK INFECTED | PEAK DAY | FINAL INFECTED | ATTACK RATE | EFFICACY VS NO CONTROL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Run simulation with different vaccination rates to compare scenarios. Scenarios are tracked automatically each run. | |||||||
How to use:
This panel has no sliders of its own and is completely independent from the "With vs Without Control Measures" panel - it never affects that panel and is never affected by it. Instead, it reads directly from the main Parameters panel on the left. Only 4 scenarios are tracked: No Control (φ1=μ1=C_P=0), Vaccination Only (only φ1 > 0), Biosecurity Only (only μ1 > 0), Culling Only (only C_P > 0), and Vaccination + Biosecurity + Culling (all three > 0). Activating exactly two of the three isn't tracked as its own row. Every tracked row uses the main simulation's own actual results for whatever the left panel currently shows, and the table refreshes automatically every time any left-panel input changes.
🔬 With vs Without Control Measures — Comparison
Side-by-side I_P curves showing impact of movement restriction, biosecurity, farmer awareness, culling & vaccine efficacy
No Control Peak
—
With Control Peak
—
Peak Reduction
—
% fewer infected
No Ctrl Final I_P
—
end-of-sim
With Ctrl Final I_P
—
end-of-sim
Duration Saved
—
fewer outbreak days
0 = no restriction, 1 = full lockdown
0 = unaware, 1 = fully aware
Rate of safe disposal / disinfection
Additional removal from I_P
Detection & isolation rate
Culling of infected pigs
Reduces waning immunity (0–1)
| Metric | Without Control | With Control | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjust control parameters above — comparison updates automatically with each simulation run. | |||
📐 View Control Measure Equations (CSF SEIR)
Pig Force of Infection (with control):
λ_P = [(β_P·I_P·(1−λ_MR)·(1−μ₁)/Np) + (β₁·(S+F)·I_P·(1−a_dd)·(1−μ₁)/Np) + (β_WP·I_W·(1−λ_MR)·(1−μ₁)/Nw)] × f(C) × (1−θ_FA)
dI_P/dt = σ₁·E_P − γ₁·I_P − (C_P+D₁)·I_P − [(1+δ_OM)·(1+η_sr)−1]·I_P
dS_P/dt = b_p + ε₁·V_P·(1−χ_Ve) − λ_P·S_P − φ₁·S_P − μ_P·S_P
Wild Boar: λ_W = β_PW·I_P·(1−π)·(1−λ_MR)/Np × (1−θ_FA) × f(C)
λ_P = [(β_P·I_P·(1−λ_MR)·(1−μ₁)/Np) + (β₁·(S+F)·I_P·(1−a_dd)·(1−μ₁)/Np) + (β_WP·I_W·(1−λ_MR)·(1−μ₁)/Nw)] × f(C) × (1−θ_FA)
dI_P/dt = σ₁·E_P − γ₁·I_P − (C_P+D₁)·I_P − [(1+δ_OM)·(1+η_sr)−1]·I_P
dS_P/dt = b_p + ε₁·V_P·(1−χ_Ve) − λ_P·S_P − φ₁·S_P − μ_P·S_P
Wild Boar: λ_W = β_PW·I_P·(1−π)·(1−λ_MR)/Np × (1−θ_FA) × f(C)
🎲 N-Scenario Monte Carlo Comparison
Uniform-distribution sampling across Minimal / Moderate / Maximum control intensity vs. No-Control baseline
Click "Run 3-Scenario Monte Carlo" to sample N draws per scenario (Baseline is deterministic, N=1).
Baseline
No Control (all = 0)
Minimal
Low-intensity control (U-sampled)
Moderate
Mid-intensity control (U-sampled)
Maximum
High-intensity control (U-sampled)
| Metric | Baseline | Minimal (mean±SD) | Moderate (mean±SD) | Maximum (mean±SD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Run the Monte Carlo comparison to see results. | ||||
📊 Uniform Distribution Parameter Ranges
| Parameter | ODE Effect | Baseline | Minimal | Moderate | Maximum |
|---|