Disease Simulation Portal

Decoding of Infection and Transmission Dynamics

Intervention day

50

Day cursor

0

Parameters

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Total pigs in infected pen i (Nᵢ)

Total pigs in pen j (Susceding to infected pen)

Total pigs in pen h (preceeding to infected pen)

Total pigs in pen g (Secondary preceeding)

Total pigs in pen k (Secondary Succeeding)

Pen i: (Sᵢ, Eᵢ, Iᵢ)

Infected pigs in pen i (Ii)

Exposed pigs in pen i (Eᵢ)

Susceptible pigs in pen i (Sᵢ) — auto Computed

Pen j: (Sⱼ, Eⱼ, Iⱼ, Qⱼ, Rⱼ)

Infected pigs in pen j (Ij)

Exposed pigs in pen j(Ej) -auto Computed

Isolated pigs in pen j(Qⱼ)*

Recovered pigs in pen j (Rⱼ)

Susceptible pigs in pen j (Sj) - auto Computed

Pen h: (Sₕ, Eₕ, Iₕ, Qₕ, Rₕ)

Infected pigs in pen h (Iₕ)

Exposed pigs in pen h (Eₕ)

Isolated pigs in pen h (Qₕ) *

Recovered pigs in pen h (Rh)

Susceptible pigs in pen h (Sₕ) -auto Computed

Pen g (FIRST LEVEL)

Recovered pigs in pen g (Rg) [FIRST LEVEL]

Susceptible pigs in g pen (Sg) — auto computed

Pen k (SECOND LEVEL)

Recovered pigs in pen k (Rk)[SECOND LEVEL]

Susceptible pigs in pen k (Sk) — auto computed

Transmission (β) & Movement (P, F)

Transmission rate within pen direct contact (β₁)*

Transmission rate Personnel movement contribution to pen i (β₂)

Transmission rate Contaminated food contribution to pen i (β₃)

Transmission rate between pen direct contact (β₄)*

Transmission rate Personnel movement between pen (β₅)

Transmission rate Food contamination between pen (β₆)

Movement of personnel from infected pen (P)

Contaminated food (F)

Progression / Removal

Rate at which exposed pigs become infected in pen i(σ)

Rate at which exposed pigs become infected in pen j and h(ρ)

Rate at which infected becomes isolated in pen j and h(φ)

Rate at which infected becomes recovered in pen j (γⱼ)

Rate at which infected becomes recovered in pen h (γₕ)

Culling rate in pen i (Cᵢ)*

Disease death in pen j (dⱼ)

Disease death in pen h (dₕ)

Recruitment (b)

Rate of new pigs introduced into pen i (bᵢ)

Rate of new pigs introduced into pen j (bⱼ)

Rate of new pigs introduced into pen h (bₕ)

Rate of new pigs introduced into pen g (bg)

Rate of new pigs introduced into pen k (bₖ)

Natural Mortality (μ) & Vacating (υ) & Empty-rate (V)

Natural Mortality rate of pigs in pen i(μᵢ)

Natural Mortality rate of pigs in pen j (μⱼ)

Natural Mortality rate of pigs in pen h (μₕ)

Natural Mortality rate of pigs in pen g(μg)

Environment (f_T, f_H, f_pH, f_env)

Temperature (°C)

Humidity (%)

pH

f_env —

f_T—

f_H—

f_pH—

f_env = fT × fH × fpH

Timeline

Total days (T)

R₀ —

Basic Reproduction Number: Average secondary cases from a single case in a fully susceptible population.

Herd Immunity —

Resistance to spread due to high immunity (infection or vaccination).

Current Day

0

Preparedness Advisory

Epidemic Dynamics

Results(at selected day)