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Intervention day
50
Day cursor
0
Rβ‚€ Results
Intervention day: 50
Rβ‚€
β€”
from model formula
Herd immunity threshold
β€”
HIT = 1 βˆ’ 1/Rβ‚€ (if Rβ‚€>1)
Day
0
Epidemic Simulation Chart
Day 0
Results at Day cursor
l_S β€” Susceptible Larvae
β€”
l_I β€” Infected Larvae
β€”
n_S β€” Susceptible Nymphs
β€”
n_I β€” Infected Nymphs
β€”
a_S β€” Susceptible Adult Ticks
β€”
a_I β€” Infected Adult Ticks
β€”
P_S β€” Susceptible Primates
β€”
P_I β€” Infectious Primates
β€”
P_D β€” Dead Primates (Carcasses)
β€”
M_S β€” Susceptible Mammals
β€”
M_I β€” Infectious Mammals
β€”
H_S β€” Susceptible Humans
β€”
H_I β€” Infectious Humans
β€”
H_R β€” Recovered Humans
β€”
H_V β€” Vaccinated Humans
β€”
Tick totals
β€”
Total infected (I_total)
β€”
N_T / N_P / N_M / N_H
β€”
Vaccination active?
β€”
I_total curve (scaled)
Markers: Peak (red), Endemic start (green), Epidemic start/end (blue / gray)
What-if: vary initial Infectious Humans (H_Iβ‚€) and compare curves
Peak I_total
β€”
Day –
Equilibrium (mean of last 7 days)
β€”
From day –
I_total* (from equations)
β€”
Endemic size from E* equations
Epidemic duration
β€”
Days with I_total > 1
Endemic equilibrium point (from equations)
Tick S*
l_S* + n_S* + a_S* (susceptible ticks)
β€”
Tick I*
l_I* + n_I* + a_I* (infected ticks)
β€”
P_S*
Susceptible primates at endemic equilibrium
β€”
P_I*
Infected primates at endemic equilibrium
β€”
M_I*
Infected monkey hosts at endemic equilibrium
β€”
H_S*
Susceptible humans at endemic equilibrium
β€”
H_I*
Infectious humans at endemic equilibrium
β€”
I_total*
Total infected (ticks + primates + humans) at endemic equilibrium
β€”