SAT-1 FMD QRA Risk Assessment Portal

Source country

Kuwait preset loaded

Source country

Model configured for Kuwait → India pathway.

Destination

Fixed to India for this model.

Iterations

Monte Carlo Iterations

Higher = smoother distribution, slower
Recommended: 10,000
Range: 100 – 200,000

Ready.

Model Inputs

Kuwait → India Study Parameters

P1 — Probability of SAT-1 FMD outbreak in Kuwait

Outbreaks (a)

Total SAT-1 FMD outbreaks recorded in surveillance period.

Study value: 16 outbreaks

Rate: λ = a/b = 16/12 = 1.333/month

Computed P1: 1 − e^−λ = 0.7364

Months (b)

Surveillance period in months.

Study value: 12 months (1 year)

$P_1 = 1-e^{-\lambda t}$, $t=1$ month, $\lambda=a/b$

P2 — Probability of FMD infection in livestock

Beta α

P2 — Beta α

α = infected animals (s) + 1

Study: s=711 animals infected → α = 712

Distribution: Beta(712, 5391)

Mean P2 = 712/6103 ≈ 0.1167

Beta β

P2 — Beta β

β = (n − s) + 1 = non-infected + 1

Study: n=6101, s=711 → β = 5391

Distribution: Beta(712, 5391)

$P_2 \sim \text{Beta}(\alpha,\beta)$ · Study: α=712, β=5391, mean≈0.1167

P3 — False negative clinical exam at source (Kuwait)

Sensitivity min

cELISA Sensitivity min

Minimum diagnostic sensitivity of cELISA test.

Study value: 0.955 (95.5%)

Distribution: Uniform(0.955, 1.0)

P3 = 1 − Sensitivity (false negative rate)

Mean P3 ≈ 0.02275

Sensitivity max

cELISA Sensitivity max

Maximum diagnostic sensitivity.

Study value: 1.0 (100%)

$P_3 = 1 - \text{Uniform}(\text{min},\text{max})$ · mean P3 ≈ 0.02275

P4 — Survival of infected livestock during transport

Mortality α (deaths+1)

P4 — Mortality α

α = deaths in transit + 1

Study: 192 deaths → α = 193

Distribution: Beta(193, 276037)

P4 = 1 − Beta (survival probability)

Mean P4 ≈ 0.9993

Mortality β (survivors+1)

P4 — Mortality β

β = (total − deaths) + 1

Study: 276228−192+1 → β = 276037

Total transported: 276,228

$P_4 = 1 - \text{Beta}(193, 276037)$ · mean P4 ≈ 0.9993

P5 — False negative clinical exam at destination (India)

P5 uses the same cELISA sensitivity distribution as P3 but is drawn independently in each iteration.

$P_5 = 1-\text{Uniform}(\text{min},\text{max})$ · mean P5 ≈ 0.02275 (independent draw)

P6 — Contact of infected livestock with susceptible animals

$P_6 = 1 - (P_{6a} \times P_{6b})$

P6a — Probability of quarantine of imported livestock

Mean probability of animals quarantined

P6a — Quarantine Probability

Mean probability that arriving animals are quarantined.

Study value: 0.02 (2%)

Fixed constraints (model):

Confidence: 95%
Upper bound: 0.10 (10%)

How α and β are computed:

ratio = (1 − mean) / mean

Brent's method finds α such that:

BetaCDF(0.10, α, ratio·α) = 0.95

Then β = ratio × α

P6a α

…

P6a β

…

mean = …

P6b — Probability of detection of disease during quarantine

Mean detection probability

P6b — Detection in Quarantine

Mean probability infected animals are detected during quarantine.

Study value: 0.99 (99%)

Fixed constraints (model):

Confidence: 95%
Lower bound: 0.90 (90%)

How α and β are computed:

System solved (Newton-Raphson):

α/(α+β) = mean

BetaCDF(0.90, α, β) = 0.05

P6b α

…

P6b β

…

mean = …

Final Risk Formula

P = P1 × P2 × P3 × P4 × P5 × P6

Probability of SAT-1 FMD introduction from Kuwait to India per month

Distribution of Simulated Risk Probabilities

Histogram · dashed lines = Min (green) / Mean (red) / Max (purple) · annotation box shows key statistics

Sensitivity Assessment

Spearman rank correlation of each node with final risk P (red = positive, blue = negative)

Downloads

Enabled after a successful simulation run.

Simulation CSV capped to 50k rows (auto-sampled if more).

SAT-1 FMD Risk Assessment Portal

SAT-1 FMD Risk: Kuwait → India

Model Simulation

Estimated Risk

Sensitivity Assessment

Distribution of Simulated Risk Probabilities

Sensitivity Assessment