Disease Simulation Dashboard

How to use

On the left, enter total populations (Nₕ, Nₚ, N_w, N_m) and initial infectious counts (I_Aₕ, Iₕ, Iₚ, I_w, I_m).
Adjust demographic rates (b, μ, r, K) for humans, pigs, birds and mosquitoes.
Set transmission parameters (β_mp, β_pm, β_mh, β_mw, β_wm) and biting rates (B, C, b(T)).
Tune control parameters (vaccination α₁, u₁; treatment τ₁, τ₂, δ, α₂; biosecurity εₚ, ε_w).
Choose the Simulation horizon (simDays) and click Run Simulation to generate JE curves and R₀.

Input tips & validated ranges

Nₕ, Nₚ, N_w, N_m: integers ≥ 0.
S, I for each host/vector: 0 – corresponding N (tool may auto-compute S from totals and other classes).
Demographic rates (bₕ, bₚ, b_w, b_m, μₕ, μₚ, μ_w, μ_m, r_w, r_m): small positive values, typically 0 – 1 per day.
Carrying capacities (K_w, K_m): integers ≥ current population (e.g., ≥ N_w, N_m).
Transmission probabilities (β_mp, β_pm, β_mh, β_mw, β_wm): 0 – 1 (per bite).
Vaccination / waning / treatment / biosecurity (α₁, u₁, ρ₁, ρ₂, τ₁, τ₂, δ, α₂, εₚ, ε_w): 0 – 1 per day (or fraction).
Viremic days (1/ηₕ): positive, typically 2 – 7 days.
Temperature T: 0 – 45 °C; T₀ (max biting temp) usually 20 – 35 °C; b₀ (biting at T₀): 0 – 5 bites/mosquito/day.
Simulation days (simDays): 30 – 365 (longer horizon shows multiple waves).

★ Most Influential Parameters (Strongly affect JE dynamics)

★ β_mh (Mosquito → Human)
★ β_mp & β_pm (Pig ↔ Mosquito cycle)
★ β_mw & β_wm (Bird ↔ Mosquito cycle)
★ b(T), r_m, K_m (Mosquito dynamics)
★ α₁, u₁ (Human vaccination)
★ εₚ, ε_w (Pig biosecurity & Bird barriers)

💡 Adjust these ★-marked parameters carefully — small changes can create large shifts in peak size, timing of JE outbreaks, and the impact of vaccination or biosecurity scenarios.

Parameters

Click input name or ? to read its meaning

Click Help button for more information

Initial human compartments

Sₕ, I_Aₕ, Iₕ, Rₕ, V₁ₕ, V₂ₕ at t = 0.

Nₕ (Total number of human population)

Sₕ (Susceptible population of humans) Auto Computed

I_Aₕ (Asymptomatic Infectious population)

Iₕ (Infectious population of humans)

Rₕ (Recovered population of humans)

V₁ₕ (Vaccinated population of humans with dose series I)

V₂ₕ (Vaccinated population of humans with dose series II)

Initial pig compartments

Susceptible, infected, and bio-secured pigs at t = 0.

Nₚ (Total number of pigs population)

Sₚ (Susceptible population of Pigs) Auto Computed

Iₚ (Infectious population of pigs)

Bₚ (Bio-secured population of pigs)

Initial wading bird compartments

Wading birds as JEV reservoirs.

N_w (Total number of wading bird population) S_w (Susceptible population of wadingbird) Auto Computed I_w (Infectious population of wadingbird) B_w (Physical or Mechanical Barrier controlled population of wading birds)

Initial mosquito compartments

Vector population at t = 0.

N_m (Total number of mosquito population) S_m (Susceptible population of mosquitoes) Auto Computed I_m (Infectious population of mosquito)

Birth and natural death rates for each host and vector; logistic growth for birds and mosquitoes.

bₕ (Recruitment rate of human) bₚ (Recruitment rate of Pigs) b_w (Recruitment rate of wading birds) b_m (Recruitment rate of mosquitoes) μₕ (Natural death rate of pigs) μₚ (Natural death rate of pigs) μ_w (Natural death rate of wading bird) μ_m (Natural death rate of mosquitoes) r_w (Intrinsic growth rate (difference of birth (b_m))) K_w (carrying capacity of wading bird population) r_m (Intrinsic growth rate (difference of birth (b_m))) K_m carrying capacity of mosquito population

JE Contact Rate – Village vs District (by species)

Use contact modifier

Level

Number of humans/animals in close JE-relevant contact

Total humans/animals in the village at risk

Village contact rate (close-contact / total at risk)

Current: 0.200

Transmission parameters

β terms are per-bite transmission probabilities; B and C partition mosquito bites between birds and pigs.

β_mp Disease transmission rate of mosquitoes to pigs(mosq → pig) β_pm Disease transmission rate of pigs to mosquitoes(pig → mosq) β_mh Disease transmission rate of mosquitoes to humans(mosq → human) β_mw Disease transmission rate of mosquitoes to wading birds(mosq → bird) β_wm Disease transmission rate of wading birds to mosquitoes(bird → mosq) B Average biting rate on susceptible wading birds by infected mosquitoes per day (bites on birds) C Average biting rate on susceptible pigs by infected mosquitoes per day(bites on pigs) φ (I_A → Iₕ)Disease transmission rate of asymptomatic to infectious humans σ Rate at diseased humans dies (JE death rate humans)

Vaccination & treatment

α, ρ, τ, ε terms control vaccination, waning, treatment and biosecurity.

α₁ The rate at which humans are vaccinated τ_1(vaccinated fraction) u₁ The rate at which humans are vaccinated with dose series I(dose I fraction) ρ₁(The rate at which vaccinated humans becomes susceptible humans with dose series I (V₁ → Sₕ)) ρ₂ (The rate at which vaccinated humans becomes susceptible humans with dose series II vaccine (V₂ → Sₕ)) τ₁ (The rate at which infected human becomes recovered with medicine) τ₂ (The rate at which infected human becomes recovered without medicine) 1/η_h (Mean viremic period of JEV (in days)) δ (Effectiveness of medicine on the human population) α₂ (The rate at which infected pigs go to the susceptible class of pigs by medicine)(treatment pigs → Sₚ) εₚ (The rate at which susceptible pigs enter the biosecured compartment)(bio-secure pigs) ε_w (The rate at which susceptible wading birds enter the Barrier compartment(barrier birds))

Temperature & biting rate

T (°C) T₀ (max biting temp) b₀ (biting at T₀)

Current implementation: b(T) = b₀ · exp(−0.1 · (T − T₀)²). biting rate of a vector in term of temperature

Simulation horizon (days)

Total number of days for which the JE dynamics will be simulated.

R₀ Results

Intervention day: 50

R₀(Basic Reproductive value)

Herd Immunity Threshold

b(T)

Peak infectious day

Preparedness

JE risk message will appear after simulation.

Herd Immunity Threshold

Minimum herd immunity required based on current R₀.

Humans Pigs Birds Mosquitoes

Indicators (toggle)

Sₕ (susceptible humans)

Iₕ (symptomatic humans)

I_Aₕ (asymptomatic)

Rₕ (recovered humans)

V₁ₕ (dose I)

V₂ₕ (dose II)

Sₚ (susceptible pigs)

Iₚ (infected pigs)

Bₚ (bio-secure pigs)

S_w (susceptible birds)

I_w (infected birds)

B_w (barrier birds)

S_m (susceptible mosq.)

I_m (infected mosq.)

Iₕ + I_Aₕ + I_m

I_total = Iₕ + I_Aₕ + Iₚ + I_w + I_m

R₀ summary + derived indicators + Equilibrium

R₀ (input)

Computed from parameters: -

Herd immunity threshold (HIT)

HIT = 1 − 1/R₀ (if R₀ > 1)

Peak infected (I_total)

Time to peak

days from Day 0

Duration of infection

days with I_total > 1

Time epidemic starts

first day I_total > 1

Time epidemic ends

last day I_total > 1

Time endemic starts

first stable plateau window

Endemic equilibrium (E₁) – Humans

estimated as mean of last 30 simulated days

Mean window (days)

Stability window (days)

Tolerance (%)

I_total curve (scaled)

Markers: Epidemic start (blue), Peak (red), Epidemic end (gray), Endemic (green)

What-if: vary initial Iₕ₀ (I_h) and compare curves

Sₕ

Iₕ

I_Aₕ

Rₕ

V₁ₕ

V₂ₕ