National Animal Disease Referral Expert System (NADRES v2)

Risk Maps

The basic reproduction number (R₀) is the number of cases directly caused by an infected individual throughout its infectious period and is an indicator of the infectiousness or transmissibility of infectious pathogens. R₀ is used to determine the ability of a disease to spread within a given population and has been described as one of the fundamental and most often used metrics for the study of infectious disease dynamics.

Geographical maps indicating the value of basic reproduction number (R₀) can be used to identify the areas of higher risk of probability for major outbreaks/incidence of livestock in India. This is a first step towards an integrative method to predict the risk of establishment of disease based on mathematical modelling combined with a geographic information system (GIS). The GIS can comprise climate variables including satellite data, landscape, host parameters, and other relevant factors determining the risk of establishment for livestock diseases.

These risk maps are a valuable tool for identifying high-risk regions where the probability of disease outbreaks is greater, enabling better planning and resource allocation to prevent widespread disease in livestock populations.